The table also shows China’s progress to date, based on public information disclosed by the Chinese government and Carbon Brief’s interview with Prof Zou Ji – chief executive and president of the NGO Energy Foundation China – in March 2021. The following table, compiled by Carbon Brief, shows that all of the numerical targets set in China’s first NDC have been enhanced in the revised submission. Furthermore, China has officially added its goal of “achieve carbon neutrality before 2060” into the latest document. In addition to the strengthened quantitative goals, China has now pledged to peak emissions “before 2030”, whereas its first NDC had aimed to do this “around 2030” and to “mak best efforts to peak early”. The fourth target for renewable capacity is a new addition. The first three quantitative targets are enhancements to goals that were included in China’s first NDC, submitted in 2016 at the same time as it ratified the Paris Agreement. In terms of quantitative targets for 2030, it pledges to cut CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by more than 65% from 2005 levels, increase the share of non-fossil energy to around 25% and raise forest stock volumes by 6bn cubic metres from 2005 levels, as well as bringing the installed capacity of wind and solar to more than 1,200 gigawatts (GW). The document – which is titled, “China’s achievements, new goals and new measures for nationally determined contributions” – was published on 28 October 2021, just days before COP26. The headline targets in China’s updated NDC are pledges to reach a peak in CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve “carbon neutrality” before 2060.
Fossil fuel plans undermine pledges un plus#
However, various China experts interviewed by Carbon Brief believe that the combination of targets in the documents, if fully implemented, could still lead to a lower peak in emissions being reached earlier than the officially stated goal of “before 2030”.īelow, Carbon Brief reviews both documents, their implications for China’s energy sector and emissions, plus examines the challenges the country faces in tackling climate change.
There was widespread international disappointment in reaction to the two documents, given they did not raise China’s headline climate ambition. But it did not specify the long-anticipated peaking date, the level at which the country’s emissions would peak, or how long they would plateau before starting to drop. Notably, major targets in the revised 2030 pledge (known as a nationally determined contribution, NDC) stay intact from the announcements made by China’s leader Xi Jinping in December 2020.
The submission means China has now officially confirmed that its commitment to tackle climate change under the terms of the Paris Agreement will see it peak its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions before 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions before 2060. Two days prior to the start of COP26 last month, China submitted its updated 2030 climate pledge and a new long-term climate strategy (LTS) to the UN.
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